Buyers • Sellers • August 28, 2024

What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

by Albert Stepniak

It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.

Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.

Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.

Home Sales

In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.

Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):

Home Prices

You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.

The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):

The one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.

Mortgage Rates

And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):

And this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, let’s connect.

Buyers • August 28, 2024

What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?

by Albert Stepniak

You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):

And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.

Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates

Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.

What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.

And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.

Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:

“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”

Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates

So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:

“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”

As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?

Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.

Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.

Bottom Line

If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market.

Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.

Buyers • August 28, 2024

Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths

by Albert Stepniak

Have you ever heard the phrase: don’t believe everything you hear? That’s especially true if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in today’s housing market. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. And right now, making sure you have someone you can go to for trustworthy information is extra important.

If you partner with a real estate agent, they can clear up some common misconceptions and reassure you by backing them up with research-driven facts. Here are just a few misconceptions they can help disprove.

1. I’ll Get a Better Deal Once Prices Crash

If you’ve heard home prices are going to come crashing down, it’s time to look at what’s actually happening. While prices vary by local market, there’s a lot of data out there from numerous sources that shows a crash is not going to happen. Back in 2008, there was a dramatic oversupply of homes that led to prices crashing. Across the board, there’s an undersupply of homes for sale today. That makes this market a whole different scenario (see chart below):

So, if you think waiting will score you a deal, know that data shows there’s not a crash on the horizon, and waiting isn’t going to pay off the way you’d hoped.

2. I Won’t Be Able To Find Anything To Buy

If this nagging fear about finding the right home if you move is still holding you back, you probably haven’t talked with an expert real estate agent lately. Throughout the year, the supply of homes for sale has grown. Data from Realtor.com helps put this into context. While there are still fewer homes on the market than in a more normal year like 2019, inventory is still above where it was at this time last year (see graph below):

So, if you’re remembering all that media coverage about record-low supply during the pandemic, you can rest a bit easier. While the market isn’t back to normal just yet, inventory is moving in a healthier direction. And that means as your options improve, you can let go of this now outdated myth because finding a home to buy won’t feel quite so impossible anymore.

3. I Have To Wait Until I Have Enough for a 20% Down Payment

Many people still believe you need a 20% down payment to buy a home. To show just how widespread this myth is, Fannie Mae says:

“Approximately 90% of consumers overstate or don’t know the minimum required down payment for a typical mortgage.”

And if you look at the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see the typical homeowner isn’t putting down as much as you might expect (see graph below):

First-time homebuyers are typically only putting down 6%. That’s far less than the 20% so many people think they need. And if you’re looking at that graph and you’re more focused on how the number for repeat buyers is closer to 20%, here’s what you need to realize. That’s only because they have so much equity built up in their current house that can be used to make a larger down payment for their next move.

This goes to show you don’t have to put 20% down, unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender. Many people put down a lot less. Not to mention, depending on the type of home loan you get, you may only need to put 3.5% or even 0% down. So, if you’re buying your first home, you likely don’t need nearly as much for your down payment as you may think.

An Agent’s Role in Fighting Misconceptions

If you put your move on pause because you heard one or more of these myths yourself, it’s time to talk to a trusted agent. An expert agent has more data and the facts, just like this, to reassure you and help break through any misconceptions that may be holding you back.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what you’re hearing or reading, let’s connect. You deserve to have someone you can trust to get the facts.

Sellers • August 21, 2024

The Number One Mistake Sellers Are Making: Overpricing Their House

by Albert Stepniak

In today’s housing market, many sellers are making a critical mistake: overpricing their houses. This common error can lead to a home sitting on the market for a long time without any offers. And when that happens, the homeowner may have to drop their asking price to try to re-ignite buyer interest.

Data from Realtor.com shows the number of homeowners realizing this mistake and doing a price reduction is climbing (see graph below):

If you’re thinking about making a move yourself, here’s what you need to know. The best way to avoid making a costly mistake is to work with a trusted real estate agent to find the right price. Here’s a look at what’s at stake if you don’t.

Not Paying Attention To Current Market Conditions

Understanding current market conditions is key to accurate pricing. You don’t want to set your asking price based on what happened during the pandemic. The market has moderated a lot since then, so it’s far better to align your price with today’s reality.

Real estate agents stay updated on market trends and how they impact the pricing strategy for your house.

Pricing It Based on What You Want To Make (Not What It’s Worth)

Another misstep is pricing it based on what you want to make on the sale, and not necessarily current market value. You may see other homes in your neighborhood selling for top dollar and assume yours can do the same. But you may not be considering differences in size, condition, and features. For example, maybe that other house is waterfront or has a finished basement. To sum it up, Bankrate explains:

“How do you find that sweet spot of pricing for profit but not overpricing? The expertise of your agent can be truly valuable here. A knowledgeable agent will understand fair market value in your area, how much your house is worth and how much you might reasonably expect to get for it in the current market.”

An agent will do a comparative market analysis (CMA) to make sure your house is compared with truly similar properties to get an accurate look at how it should be priced.

Pricing High to Leave Room for Negotiation

Another common, yet misguided strategy is to price your house high on purpose, so you have more room to negotiate down during the sale. But this can backfire. A price that seems too high often deters potential buyers from even considering the home. So rather than leaving room for negotiation, what you’ll actually be doing is turning buyers away. U.S. News Real Estate explains:

“You want to sell your house for top dollar, but be realistic about the value of the property and how buyers will see it. If you’ve overpriced your home, chances are you’ll eventually need to lower the number, but the peak period of activity that a new listing experiences is already gone.”

An agent can help you set a fair price that attracts buyers and encourages more competitive offers.

Bottom Line

Overpricing your home can have serious consequences. A knowledgeable real estate agent brings an objective perspective, in-depth market knowledge, and a strategic approach to pricing.

Let’s connect so you can avoid making a pricing mistake that’ll cost you.

Buyers • Sellers • August 21, 2024

How To Choose a Great Local Real Estate Agent

by Albert Stepniak

Selecting the right real estate agent can make a world of difference when buying or selling a home. But how do you find the best one? Here are some tips to help you make that big decision as you determine your partner in the process.

Check Their Reputation

Start by gathering information about agents in your area. From there, try to narrow down the list. Ask the people you trust if they have someone they’d recommend. You’ll want to find an agent with a strong online presence, plenty of positive reviews, and someone whose great reputation truly precedes them. As Freddie Mac explains:

“. . . you may want to look for a real estate agent who specializes in the type of home you’re searching for. For example, if you are looking for an energy-efficient home, look for an agent who has experience with finding and negotiating offers for those homes. If you are looking for new construction, you’ll want to find an agent who has experience with new construction and isn’t affiliated with the builder . . .”

Look for Local Market Expertise

A great agent should have in-depth knowledge of what’s happening at the national and local level. That way they can clear up any misconceptions sparked by what you’re reading or hearing in the news. And they can tell you how your area compares to the national data. As an added perk, they’ll also be familiar with the neighborhoods you’re interested in and community amenities. As a recent article from Business Insider says:

“Spend some time talking with prospective agents about the local real estate market and how it could impact your purchase or sale. You want to get an understanding of how knowledgeable they are about local market conditions. Whether they’re helping you sell or buy, their strategy for you should account for those conditions.”

Get a Feel for Their Communication Style and Availability

Effective communication is key in real estate transactions. Choose an agent who listens to your needs, answers your questions quickly, and keeps you informed throughout the process. If an agent is juggling too many clients, they might not be able to give you the attention you deserve. You want someone who will be readily available and responsive. So, what’s the best way to get a feel for their communication style and preferences? Bankrate offers this advice:

“Interviews also give you a chance to find out the agent’s preferred method of communication and their availability. For example, if you’re most comfortable texting and expect to visit homes after work hours during the week, you’ll want an agent who’s happy to do the same.”

Trust Your Gut

Last, rely on your instincts. If you feel like you do or don’t click with one of the agents you’re talking to, that matters. Choose an agent you feel at ease with and who inspires confidence. The right agent should be someone you trust to guide you through one of the most significant transactions of your life. As Business Insider says:

“As long as you’ve properly vetted the agents you’re considering and ensured they have the necessary expertise, it’s ok to go with your gut . . . Maybe you have a better rapport with one of the agents you’re considering, or you just feel like they’re easier to approach. You’re going to be working closely with this person, so it’s important to choose an agent you’re comfortable with.”

Bottom Line

By following these tips, you can pick an agent who’ll provide the support and expertise you need to help make the process as smooth as possible. It’d be an honor to apply for that job. Let’s connect so we can have a conversation and see if we’d be a good fit for working together.

Buyers • August 21, 2024

How Mortgage Rate Changes Impact Your Homebuying Power

by Albert Stepniak

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’ve probably got mortgage rates on your mind. That’s because you’ve likely heard that mortgage rates impact how much you can afford in your monthly mortgage payment, and you want to factor that into your planning. Here’s what you need to know.

What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates have been trending down recently. While that’s good news for your homebuying plans, it’s important to know that rates can be unpredictable because they’re affected by many factors.

Things like the economy, job market, inflation, and decisions made by the Federal Reserve all play a part. So, even as rates go down, they can still bounce around a bit based on new economic data. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“The ongoing deceleration in inflation, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s recent indication of potential rate cuts [in 2024], suggests an environment supportive of modest declines in mortgage rates. Barring any unforeseen circumstances and resurgence in inflation, lower mortgage rates could be on the horizon, but the journey towards them might be slow and bumpy.”

How Do These Changes Affect You?

When mortgage rates change, it affects how much you pay each month for your home loan. Even a small rate change can make a big difference to your monthly bill.

Take a look at the chart below to see how different mortgage rates impact your house payment each month for various loan amounts. Imagine you can afford a monthly payment of $2,600 for your home loan. The green part in the chart shows payments in that range or lower based on varying mortgage rates (see chart below):

Understanding how mortgage rates impact your payment helps you make better decisions.

How Can You Keep Track of the Latest on Rates?

Real estate agents have the expertise to help you understand what’s happening and what it means for you. They can provide tools and visuals, like the chart above, to show how rate changes impact your buying power.

You don’t need to be a mortgage expert; you just need a professional by your side. Someone who can help you make sense of the market and guide you through your homebuying or selling journey.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about the housing market, let’s connect. That way you’ll understand what’s going on and how to navigate it.

Buyers • August 21, 2024

What Credit Score Do You Really Need To Buy a House?

by Albert Stepniak

When you’re thinking about buying a home, your credit score is one of the biggest pieces of the puzzle. Think of it like your financial report card that lenders look at when trying to figure out if you qualify, and which home loan will work best for you. As the Mortgage Report says:

“Good credit scores communicate to lenders that you have a track record for properly managing your debts. For this reason, the higher your score, the better your chances of qualifying for a mortgage.”

The trouble is most buyers overestimate the minimum credit score they need to buy a home. According to a report from Fannie Mae, only 32% of consumers have a good idea of what lenders require. That means nearly 2 out of every 3 people don’t.

So, here’s a general ballpark to give you a rough idea. Experian says:

“The minimum credit score needed to buy a house can range from 500 to 700, but will ultimately depend on the type of mortgage loan you’re applying for and your lender. Most lenders require a minimum credit score of 620 to buy a house with a conventional mortgage.”

Basically, it varies. So, even if your credit isn’t perfect, there are still options out there. FICO explains:

“While many lenders use credit scores like FICO Scores to help them make lending decisions, each lender has its own strategy, including the level of risk it finds acceptable. There is no single “cutoff score” used by all lenders, and there are many additional factors that lenders may use . . .”

And if your credit score needs a little TLC, don’t worry—Experian says there are some easy steps you can take to give it a boost, including:

1. Pay Your Bills on Time

Lenders want to see that you can reliably pay your bills on time. This includes everything from credit cards to utilities and cell phone bills. Consistent, on-time payments show you’re a responsible borrower.

2. Pay Off Outstanding Debt

Paying down what you owe can help lower your overall debt and make you less of a risk to lenders. Plus, it improves your credit utilization ratio (how much credit you’re using compared to your total limit). A lower ratio means you’re more reliable to lenders.

3. Don’t Apply for Too Much Credit

While it might be tempting to open more credit cards to build your score, it’s best to hold off. Too many new credit applications can lead to hard inquiries on your report, which can temporarily lower your score.

Bottom Line

Your credit score is crucial when buying a home. Even if your score isn’t perfect, there are still pathways to homeownership.

Working with a trusted lender is the best way to get more information on how your credit score could factor into your home loan.

Buyers • Sellers • August 14, 2024

The Great Wealth Transfer: A New Era of Opportunity

by Albert Stepniak

In recent years, there’s been a significant shift in how wealth is distributed among generations. It’s called the Great Wealth Transfer.

Historically, the transfer of wealth from one generation to the next was a more gradual process, often limited to smaller amounts of inheritance or family savings. But today, the scale has increased in a big way. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

“The biggest wave of wealth in history is about to pass from Baby Boomers over the next 20 years, and it’s going to have major impacts on many facets of life. Called The Great Wealth Transfer, $84 trillion is poised to move from older Americans to Gen X and millennials. If it’s managed smartly, Americans will be able to grow their wealth and ensure their financial security.”

Basically, as more Baby Boomers retire, sell businesses, or downsize their homes, more substantial assets are being passed down to younger generations. And this creates a powerful ripple effect that’ll continue over the next few decades. The graph below uses data from Merrill and Cerulli Associates to give you an idea of how much inherited money is set to change hands through 2045:

Impact on the Housing Market

One of the most immediate effects of this wealth transfer is on the housing market. Home affordability has been a concern for many aspiring buyers, especially in high-demand areas. The increase in generational wealth is expected to ease some of these challenges by providing future homeowners with greater financial resources. As assets are passed down through generations, buyers may find themselves in a better position to afford homes. Merrill talks about that benefit in a recent article:

“While millennials face steep barriers . . . to buying a first home in many markets, ‘that’s a for-now story, not a forever story’ . . . The Great Wealth Transfer should enable more of them to become homeowners — or trade up or add a second home — either through inherited property or the funds for a down payment.”

Impact on the Economy

But the Great Wealth Transfer doesn’t just impact housing. It’s also going to provide a new avenue for entrepreneurial spirits to fuel economic growth. If someone is looking to start a business and they’re receiving funds like this, that money can used as the necessary capital to start a new company. This helps the next generation of innovators and business owners bring their ideas to life.

Bottom Line

While affordability remains a challenge in today’s housing market, the ongoing Great Wealth Transfer is poised to unlock new opportunities. As wealth is passed down and put to use, it’s expected to ease some of the barriers to homeownership and fuel other entrepreneurial endeavors.

Buyers • Sellers • August 13, 2024

Is Affordability Starting To Improve?

by Albert Stepniak

Over the past couple of years, a lot of people have had a hard time buying a home. And while affordability is still tight, there are signs it’s getting a little better and might keep improving throughout the rest of the year. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Housing affordability is improving ever so modestly, but it is moving in the right direction.”

Here’s a look at the latest data on the three biggest factors affecting home affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.

1. Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have been volatile this year, bouncing around from the mid-6% to low 7% range. But there’s some good news. Data from Freddie Mac shows rates have been trending down overall since May (see graph below):

Mortgage rates have improved lately in part because of recent economic, employment, and inflation data. Moving forward, some rate volatility is to be expected. But if future economic data continues to show signs of cooling, experts say mortgage rates could keep going down.

Even a small drop can help you out. When rates decline, it’s easier to afford the home you want because your monthly payment will be lower. Just don’t expect them to go back down to 3%.

2. Home Prices

The second big thing to think about is home prices. Nationally, they’re still going up this year, but not as fast as they did a couple of years ago. The graph below uses home price data from Case-Shiller to illustrate that point:

If you’re thinking about buying a home, slower price growth is good news. Home prices went up a lot during the pandemic, making it hard for many people to buy. Now, with prices rising more slowly, buying a home may feel less out of reach. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:

“While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help – so the dream of homeownership isn’t boarded up just yet.”

3. Wages

Another factor helping with affordability is rising wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have increased over time:

Look at the blue dotted line. It shows how wages usually go up in a typical year. On the right side of the graph, you’ll see wages are rising even faster than normal right now – that’s the green line.

This helps you because if your income increases, it’s easier to afford a home. That’s because you won’t have to spend as much of your paycheck on your monthly mortgage payment.

Bottom Line

When you put all these factors together, you see mortgage rates are trending down, home prices are rising more slowly, and wages are going up faster than usual. Though affordability is still a challenge, these trends are early signs things might be starting to improve.

Buyers • Sellers • August 13, 2024

Are There More Homes for Sale Where You Live?

by Albert Stepniak

One of the biggest bright spots in today’s housing market is how much the supply of homes for sale has grown since the beginning of this year.

Recent data from Realtor.com shows that nationally, there are 36.6% more homes actively for sale now compared to the same time last year. That’s a significant improvement. It gives you far more options for your move than you would’ve had just a year ago. And with supply improving, you’re also regaining a bit of negotiation power. So, if you’re someone who thought about buying a home over the last few years but was discouraged by how limited inventory was, this should be welcome news.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions.”

But just so you have perspective, even though inventory has grown, that doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly flipped to an oversupply of homes on the market. There are nowhere near enough homes for sale to make prices crash. If you compare today’s inventory levels to more normal, pre-pandemic numbers (2017–2019), there are still roughly 29% fewer homes actively for sale now (see graph below):

So, while we’re up by almost 37% year-over-year, we’re still not back to how much inventory there’d be in a normal market.

As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:

“ . . . currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.”

But that’s okay. It’s to be expected. As a country, it’ll take a while to get back to the typical level of homes for sale. And the good news for buyers is, in some select markets, it’s closer to being a reality.

Here’s a rundown of what today’s inventory growth looks like by region (see graph below):

Real estate will always be hyper-local. If you want to find out what inventory numbers look like where you live, reach out to a local agent. They’ll be able to tell you what they’re seeing and how it stacks up to the national market. You may find you have even more opportunity to move where you are.

Bottom Line

The supply of homes across the country is improving in a big way. As a buyer, that gives you more options for your home search, and ultimately, a better chance of finding what you like.

So, what are you looking for in a home? And what’s your budget? Let’s go over that together to find the options that may be right for you.

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